We have made enhancements to the way predictions are made on Forecaster Challenge. Prediction cost and payout is no longer be based only on probability of the outcome occurring as they have been so far.
We have also introduced predictions on Low Temperatures.
Prediction cost will vary over time
Prediction cost in AccuDollars is be based strictly on time until the Measurement Day (i.e. the day for which you are making a prediction). If you make a prediction for a Measurement Day that is out in the future (such as 7 days from now), that prediction will cost you less. If you make a prediction for a Measurement Day that is sooner (such as tomorrow), that prediction will cost you more. There is be a financial incentive to get your predictions in early. If you wait until just before the Measurement Day to make your prediction, you will have to pay extra for that privilege.
Proportional payout based on predicting close to the outcome
Payout amounts for correct predictions will be based on sharing among all correct predictions the pool of all AccuDollars that have been spent on predictions for the given city, date, and weather type (e.g. Rain, Snow, High Temperature or Low Temperature). And predictions that are closest to the outcome without going over receive the highest proportion of the payout pool, while predictions that are further from the outcome receive a smaller share of the payout pool.
For example, if 1000 AccuDollars was spent predicting Rain for Dallas-Fort Worth (KDFW) on Tuesday and the Rainfall amount that day in that city ends up being 2.20 inches, if you had predicted Rainfall of At Least 2.00”, you would receive the largest possible share of the payout. If you had predicted Rainfall at a lower amount, you would still receive a payout, albeit a smaller share. If you had predicted At Least 2.25”, or any higher level, you would get nothing. And if you had predicted No Rain for that day, you would also get nothing.
You can no longer predict that there will be Less Than a certain amount of Rain or Snow. But you can make more than one prediction for a given city and date, so you can spread your predictions across different levels to try to optimize your payout. If your prediction level is very low compared to the outcome, your payout amount will be very limited. But if your prediction level is higher than the outcome, then you will not get a payout at all. So predict carefully!
Weather types: Rain, Snow, High Temperatures and Low Temperatures
You will now be able to make predictions on Low Temperatures. This should make for some interesting opportunities during the upcoming winter season!
The prediction costs and payout amounts described above will behave similarly for predicting Rainfall, Snowfall, High Temperatures, and Low Temperatures.
We’d love to hear from you!
If you have any questions or feedback, please let us know!
The only thing better than being right, is getting rewarded for it! Build up your AccuDollar account balance by participating in Forecaster Challenge and making correct predictions, and convert those AccuDollars into cash on TradeWx.
Here’s how it works:
You may convert 50,000 per day into $10.00 USD that can be used for trading in a valid CX Trading Account (subject to a maximum per CX account of $100.00 USD).
Participants are not required to trade on CX and may withdraw incentive funds from their CX Clearinghouse Account beginning on October 1, 2018. There is no financial obligation required to obtain a valid CX Trading Account, however participants are required to complete fully and submit the CX Participant Application Packet (“Application”) according to the instructions provided.
The official program rules describe the full details of the program.
Forecaster Challenge is a new weather forecasting game offered by AccuWeather and developed and operated by CX. This educational game exists to increase your weather awareness, both severe and non-severe, by making it interesting to follow the weather differently than just looking at what is going on in your own neighborhood. Players can demonstrate their ability in weather forecasting and gain confidence in their overall situational awareness of upcoming weather events.
Players make predictions on the weather and track the results of their predictions within the game – whether they were correct or incorrect. Players are walked through a series of steps: they determine which prediction they would like to make, they confirm their prediction and they return to the site to see if they were correct.
Players receive AccuDollars for making correct predictions, but every prediction also costs AccuDollars to make, so predict wisely! AccuDollars have no intrinsic or other value, they are simply used as a measure of success within the game. Prediction risk/reward AccuDollar pricing is created automatically based on the likelihood that a given prediction will ultimately occur.
Examples of predictions:
Forecaster Challenge is completely free for everyone to play.
Making predictions on all weather types generally follows the same process, but each weather type can have it's own particular decisions to make. Just like each type of weather is different - so are the decisions you should make when predicting!
For Rain or Snow:
Note: Predictions for the date furthest from today are the least expensive at 1,000 AD each day closer to the present date adds 250 AccuDollars to the cost. i.e. prediction for tomorrow would cost the most at 2,500 AccuDollars. Choose your dates wisely!
For Tropical Storms:
Every prediction for Tropical Storms costs 1,000.
For Highest / Lowest Temperatures:
Note: Similar to Predictions for Snow and rain, predictions for the date furthest from today are the least expensive at 1,000 AD each day closer to the present date adds 250 AccuDollars to the cost. i.e. prediction for tomorrow would cost the most at 2,500 AccuDollars. Choose your dates wisely!
Making a prediction is not without risk within Forecaster Challenge. Each prediction made by a player costs AccuDollars. Players are given a number of FREE AccuDollars when they sign up for the game. AccuDollars have no intrinsic or other value, they cannot be converted to real money or value.
Players win AccuDollars for making correct predictions but lose the AccuDollars they spend if they are incorrect. The number of AccuDollars players win depends on the prediction they choose and the forecast for that prediction.
Players cannot purchase more AccuDollars but they may receive more free AccuDollars during each day they login to the game - come back often to keep getting more free AccuDollars. It is possible, that in the future, AccuDollars may be available for purchase.
Predictions are the core activity that players participate in on Forecaster Challenge. By making a prediction players either win AccuDollars (if they are correct) or lose the AccuDollars they spent to make the prediction (if they are wrong).
Each weather type requires the user to make slightly different choices in order to submit a prediction, but in each case the user trying to decide on what the weather will be on a future date - and earning AccuDollars for being correct.
There are many locations spread across the continental United States that can be chosen by players to make predictions. For Snow, Rain and Temperature, these locations are government controlled weather measuring stations that record specific amounts of snowfall and rainfall. Most of these stations are co-located or in close proximity to a major airport. For the purposes of this game, these key measuring stations have been assigned to the closest major city.
For Tropical Storms, players may pick from any zip code that is within 75 miles of the eastern coastline of the continental USA. Locations range from the southern coasts of Texas through the northern waterlines of Maine, and the entire coastline in between.
Depths of Rain and Snow are predicted and observed using the 24-hour calendar day of midnight to midnight local standard time, year-round. Predictions are validated and settled as correct or incorrect based on official observations by NOAA at a primary observation station within a particular city; using NOAA Preliminary Climatology Reports (CF6). Intraday settlements may occur for rain, if the summation of 1-hour precipitation amounts from the official NOAA observation station confirms settlement can be completed.
Snow is measured to an accuracy of 0.1” and includes ice pellets. Anything less than 0.1” of Snow is reported as trace and considered “no snow has fallen” for a location. Snow predictions can be made at the first 0.5” and then in 1” increments. The maximum depth of snow available to predict is 36”.
Rain is measured to an accuracy of 0.01” and is either the exact rainfall total for days with all rain or the liquid equivalent total if there is a mix of rain and snow or all snow. Anything less than 0.01” of Rain is reported as trace and considered “no rain has fallen” for a location. Rain predictions can be made in 0.25” increments up to 3” and then in 1” increments. The maximum depth of rain available to predict in the game is 10”.
Note: Not every depth of snow/rain from the minimum to the maximum is made available for players in the game. Each location and day can be different depending on the forecast for that location on that day.
The amount won on a correct prediction is proportional to:
Players can seek to maximize payouts by placing predictions covering all possible accurate outcomes.
Note: As the pool of AccuDollars spent on predicting each weather type for any location and date changes constantly final payout values will only be known after settlement.
The payouts for tropical storms fluctuate based upon how many people make predictions on a storm, and how many people are correct. Every prediction contributes 1,000 to the pool, and the winning predictions equally split the pool. If there are 10 winning predictions, each prediction gets 1/10th of the pool. If you have more than one winning prediction, then you get more than one share of the winnings!
The payouts for high temperatures fluctuate based upon how many people make predictions for the same day, and how many people are correct. Every prediction contributes to the pool for the date of the prediction, and the winning predictions split the pool in proportions to size and accuracy. If you have more than one winning prediction, then you get more than one share of the winnings!
There are a variety of conditions which can cause your prediction to be cancelled or for an error to occur when submitting a prediction:
1. Maximum Limit on each Location/Date/Depth/Temperature
There is a maximum of 1 prediction you can have on a specific Location, Date, and Depth for each product type.
2. Not enough AccuDollars
If you submit a prediction that would cost you more AccuDollars than you have in your account, your prediction will fail to go through.
You can make as many as you want! As long as you have AccuDollars, you can keep making predictions.
For Snow, Rain, Temperature, you are limited to 1 prediction per date, location and depth/temperature.
For Tropical Storms, you are limited to 1 prediction per zip code per storm - but you can predict on as many different zip codes for a single storm as you want... even if they are right beside each other!
Predictions for “tomorrow” are accepted until 5pm ET "today". So if it's Tuesday, you can make Wednesday predictions until 5pm on Tuesday.
Not every city is available to choose, we have focused on major US cities in Forecaster Challenge. We are always mindful of adding new cities though! Please let us know which cities we should add next and why?
Only 7 days’ worth of predictions are available at any one time.
Yes! You can make as many snow, rain or temperature predictions as you want on a location (one per date/location/measurement set though). For Tropical Storms, you're limited to one prediction per zip code per storm.
Yes! You can make as many predictions as you want for a date (one per date/location/measurement set though).
At the latest, it takes until 12 noon ET on the date following the prediction to make sure the weather measurements are correct. If you make a prediction for Tuesday December 11th 2018, the prediction will be verified as correct or incorrect at or after 12 noon on Wednesday December 12th, 2018. Some predictions may be verified during the course of the day as final weather measurement data arrives.
For Tropical Storms, it can take up to 24 hours after a storm makes landfall - however, typically verification happens within hours of each landfall.
The weather data recorded for a day is verified by official observations provided by NOAA within the Preliminary Local Climatological Data Report (CF6) and that data is used to determine if your prediction was correct.
The measurements are taken at specific locations near each city listed. The exact weather you experience may not be the same as the weather that occurred at the measuring station.
When your prediction is submitted, the Forecaster Challenge servers log your prediction in a database. Once the prediction is safe and confirmed, it will be accepted and show up on your profile.
If you make two exactly opposing predictions, you will, in effect be cancelling all or a portion of your first prediction with the second.
Players are required to register to participate in Forecaster Challenge as that is the only way to track their predictions from day to day. It also provides them with an account balance of AccuDollars that will persist over time.
Only an email address and password are required to register – no additional personal information is required. In the future, AccuWeather and/or CX may send you promotional emails.
We need to make sure that every account is unique and to do that we rely on an email address. It also allows AccuWeather and/or CX to reach out if there are any support issues we need to contact you about.
At this time you cannot change your email address after you have initially signed up. If your email address has changed, you can register a new account using the new email address.
You can reset your password by accessing the password reset button on the login page. Once selected follow the steps that will be emailed by CX to the email you set up your account with.
No. AccuDollars are not available for purchase.
A few times each day, when you log into Forecaster Challenge you will be awarded additional FREE AccuDollars. When you are correct in your predictions you will earn AccuDollars.
This table displays all of the predictions a user has made for dates in the future.
This table displays recent predictions which have been resolved as correct or incorrect.
For more information please visit our Rules page.
If you require additional assistance not addressed above, please email our support team at:
Please reference "Forecaster Challenge" within the email subject, and it would be helpful to at least include: